Polling & Projection History

Probabilities

To account for real-world uncertainty, we run 1,000 simulations using current polling averages as a baseline. Each run randomly adjusts key variables such as tactical voting, incumbent effects and electoral geography to show the full range of possible election outcomes.

Geography & Demographics

Cabinet Retention Rate

Alternative Electoral Systems

With a renewed focus on electoral reform under Andy Burnham's premiership, we've simulated a number of scenarios illustrating how current UK polling averages translate to different electoral systems used across the world. Important to note that there are both universal and system-specific rules that can further influence the apportionment of seats such as thresholds, constituency boundaries, and the component ratios within hybrid systems.

User Input

Methodology

Coming soon! In the meantime you can read about our methodology here.